20
201
420
resolved Mar 11
Resolved
YES

Over the weekend, Lee Anderson had the Conservative whip removed for his absolutely vile comments about Sadiq Khan:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/24/lee-anderson-stripped-of-tory-whip-over-sadiq-khan-comment

There is lots of speculation that he will defect to Reform UK.

Will he do so before Parliament is dissolved?

Resolution notes:

  • If Anderson defects so that he is sitting as a Reform UK MP, this market will resolve to YES.

  • If Anderson resigns his seat or is removed in some other way and registers as the Reform UK candidate for a by-election, this market will resolve to YES

  • If Anderson announces that he will be standing in the next General Election as a Reform UK candidate, this market resolves to YES

  • If Parliament is dissolved and Anderson has not done any of the above things, the market will resolve to NO.

  • If Anderson is affiliated with Reform but is not sitting as a Reform UK MP or running for Parliament as a Reform candidate, that's not enough to meet the threshold for this market

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Lee Anderson and Richard Tice have just held a joint press conference to announce his defection to Reform UK and to "unveil" him as their first MP. This market resolves YES.

Will more MPs follow Anderson? Will this deliver a boost to Reform? Related markets here:

/SimonGrayson/will-any-more-mps-defect-to-reform-6af568feead7

/SimonGrayson/will-any-more-mps-defect-to-reform

/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-poll-at-15-or-above

/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-be-ahead-of-the-cons

boughtṀ500YES

@Noit I was about to put a big YES bet in off the back of this Telegraph article, but you beat me to the punch by 4 minutes!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/03/11/lee-anderson-expected-defect-conservatives-reform/

@SimonGrayson News trading, I hate that it gets results but also I like having mana.

soldṀ23YES

Counter-market: will he get the Conservative whip back?

Related market - will Liz Truss lose the whip as well?

/SimonGrayson/will-liz-truss-lose-the-conservativ-8fb67ecad4ac

@SimonGrayson On the other hand, the deputy leader of Reform is suggesting that they wouldn’t welcome Anderson!

More related questions