Over the weekend, Lee Anderson had the Conservative whip removed for his absolutely vile comments about Sadiq Khan:
There is lots of speculation that he will defect to Reform UK.
Will he do so before Parliament is dissolved?
Resolution notes:
If Anderson defects so that he is sitting as a Reform UK MP, this market will resolve to YES.
If Anderson resigns his seat or is removed in some other way and registers as the Reform UK candidate for a by-election, this market will resolve to YES
If Anderson announces that he will be standing in the next General Election as a Reform UK candidate, this market resolves to YES
If Parliament is dissolved and Anderson has not done any of the above things, the market will resolve to NO.
If Anderson is affiliated with Reform but is not sitting as a Reform UK MP or running for Parliament as a Reform candidate, that's not enough to meet the threshold for this market
Related questions
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Lee Anderson and Richard Tice have just held a joint press conference to announce his defection to Reform UK and to "unveil" him as their first MP. This market resolves YES.
Will more MPs follow Anderson? Will this deliver a boost to Reform? Related markets here:
/SimonGrayson/will-any-more-mps-defect-to-reform-6af568feead7
/SimonGrayson/will-any-more-mps-defect-to-reform
@Noit I was about to put a big YES bet in off the back of this Telegraph article, but you beat me to the punch by 4 minutes!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/03/11/lee-anderson-expected-defect-conservatives-reform/
Related market - will Liz Truss lose the whip as well?
/SimonGrayson/will-liz-truss-lose-the-conservativ-8fb67ecad4ac
Anderson says he’s not ruling it out…
@SimonGrayson On the other hand, the deputy leader of Reform is suggesting that they wouldn’t welcome Anderson!