It's now been over two weeks since almost 9,000 subreddits went dark on 12th June.
We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% to come back up, but the number coming back seems to keep slowing and slowing...
This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "2330/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 26.4%. If this figure ticks below 25%, the market resolves to YES.
The deadline is Monday at 21:00 UK time (the closing time of the market). Since we're now pretty close to 25%, it shouldn't take too much of a push to get over the line but if a subreddit still hasn't come back by now then we have to wonder whether they're ever going to come back willingly!
Previous markets tracking the progress:
/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida
/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-3baa7207de33
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-1355726bd833
(With thanks to @MP who came up with the idea and created the first two markets here)
Resolution notes:
If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.
1,000
3.00https://reddark.untone.uk/ is now showing "2207/8829 subreddits are currently dark"!
This isn't looking like an error or a blip - we've finally gone under 25%!
@SimonGrayson The main Reddit App is #107 Top Charts on Apple App Store & #18 on Google Play Store😂
(Still gunna miss BaconReader 😭 )
2212/8829 dark subs at 14h before market close, about 25.05%.
̶7̶ 5 more subreddits will have to come back online to dip below 25%.
@NoyaV It's just 5 more unless I'm missing something?
25% of 8829 is 2207.25 so if it hits 2207, it's under 25%
@SimonGrayson Yep, idk why I wrote 7 even though I calculated 5, must be the early morning
24 hours to go and we're at 2224/8829 dark.
This resolves to YES if the number hits 2207 (so dipping right under 25%), so it needs to fall by another 17 in 24 hours. That's pretty close to the rate at which it's been falling over the past 48 hours, so this one looks like it might be pretty close!
Minor note - https://reddark.io/ has consistently been showing a slightly lower number than https://reddark.untone.uk/ for the past few days. https://reddark.untone.uk/ is the source of truth for this market, so make sure to base any bets on that rather than on the mirror site which is only there a backup!
-1.648854961832 / hour in last 33 hours. 2152.8626 (24.383991%) expected on 7/3.
Link, BST (UTC+1)
6/20 00:50 3460 / 8829 39.19%
6/20 02:45 3440 / 8829 38.96% -10.4347826 / hour
6/20 09:50 3412 / 8829 38.65% -3.952941 / hour
6/20 16:45 3360 / 8829 38.06% -7.518 / hour
6/20 19:20 3315 / 8829 37.55% -17.4193548387 / hour
6/20 21:10 3289 / 8829 37.25% -14.181818 / hour
6/21 01:50 3222 / 8829 36.49% -14.3571428571428 / hour
6/21 08:30 3138 / 8829 35.54% -12.6 / hour
6/21 20:30 2939 / 8829 33.29% -16.58333 / hour
6/22 00:30 2859 / 8829 32.38% -20 / hour
6/22 03:15 2805 / 8829 31.77% -19.6363636363636 / hour
6/22 07:15 2761 / 8829 31.27% -11 / hour
6/22 12:15 2723 / 8829 30.84% -7.6 / hour
6/22 17:15 2684 / 8829 30.4% -7.8 / hour
6/22 21:00 2638 / 8829 29.88% -12.2666 / hour
6/22 22:00 2644 / 8829 29.95% +6 / hour
6/23 06:50 2590 / 8829 29.34% -6.1132 / hour
6/23 10:15 2582 / 8829 29.24% -2.3414634146 / hour
6/23 15:40 2578 / 8829 29.2% -0.7384615384615 / hour
6/23 19:50 2562 / 8829 29.02% -3.84 / hour
6/23 22:00 2559 / 8829 28.98% -1.38461538461538 / hour
6/24 04:45 2533 / 8829 28.69% -3.851851 / hour
6/24 10:45 2525 / 8829 28.6% -1.333 / hour
6/25 03:35 2490 / 8829 28.2% -2.0792 / hour
6/25 11:50 2484 / 8829 28.13% -0.727272 / hour
6/26 08:05 2434 / 8829 27.57% -2.4691358 / hour
6/26 23:00 2402 / 8829 27.21% -2.14525 / hour
6/27 21:10 2418 / 8829 27.39% +0.7218 / hour
6/28 09:40 2366 / 8829 26.8% -4.16 / hour
6/28 12:10 2353 / 8829 26.65% -5.2 / hour
6/28 20:05 2352 / 8829 26.6% -0.1263 / hour
6/29 07:45 2333 / 8829 26.42% -1.62857 / hour
6/30 03:05 2304 / 8829 26.1% -1.5 / hour
6/30 16:30 2279 / 8829 25.81% -1.863354 / hour
7/2 22:45 2222 / 8829 25.17% -1 / hour
Yes, yes, let the hate flow through you!
@Noit That's a good point - assuming Reddit don't back down from their plans there's going to be a lot of anger this week.
On the other hand, they might double down on their attempts to force dark subs to open up again once the changes have happened and they can spread the idea that any further protest is pointless. They have already been removing and banning moderators of the larger subs who have refused to open up again!