Blackpool South MP Scott Benton has been found to have broken lobbying rules and the standards watchdog has recommended a 35-day suspension:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/14/blackpool-mp-scott-benton-faces-commons-suspension-over-lobbying-scandal

This could lead to a by-election - there’s a market here on whether this by-election will take place:

/SimonGrayson/will-there-be-a-byelection-in-black

Blackpool South would be a very interesting seat for a by-election. It was previously seen as a swing seat, one of the seats which went from the Tories to Labour in the 1997 landslide. After that it was seen as a safe-ish Labour seat, staying in the red column even as the Tories took power in 2010 and gained a majority in 2015.

But in 2019 it was part of the so called “red wall” won over by Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” campaign.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackpool_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

If Starmer’s Labour can win it back with a comfortable majority, that would be a sign that he’s on his way to Downing Street!

Which party will win the by-election?

• If no by-election takes place by the time Parliament is dissolved for a general election, the market will resolve to N/A

• Feel free to add other parties to this market, but do not add the names of individual candidates. The market will not resolve to a candidate’s name. It a candidate is running without party affiliation, they are covered by the “Independent” option

• If a candidate from one of the main parties is calling themselves something different in the election (eg. The Tory candidate runs as “Local Conservative” or the Labour candidate runs as “Labour and Co-Operative”), the market will resolve to the party’s normal name rather than any extra option that’s added to the market.

Related market:

/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd