Conservative Party leadership contest - who will be the second candidate to be eliminated?
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Plus
23
Ṁ15k
resolved Sep 11
100%98.7%
Mel Stride
0.4%
Tom Tugendhat
0.3%
Robert Jenrick
0.4%
James Cleverly
0.3%
Kemi Badenoch

The first round of voting has taken place and Priti Patel is out of the contest.

There are five remaining candidates in the running to the next leader of the Conservative Party.

The remaining steps of the contest are planned to be:

  • MPs will vote in multiple rounds. In each round, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated (candidates who were close to losing quite often drop out at this point as well) and the others go through to the next round of voting

  • If there are more than four nominees, MPs will vote on candidates to whittle them down to the final four in time for Conservative Party conference

  • The final four candidates will give their pitch at the conference (29th Sep to 2nd Oct)

  • MPs will continue voting to get down to the final two candidates

  • The Conservative Party membership will vote on the final two candidates

  • The new leader will be announced on 2nd November

The next vote among MPs is expected next week. Who will be the next candidate to be eliminated?

  • If one of the five remaining candidates withdraws or is expelled before the next vote, the market will resolve to that candidate

  • If the next vote is between the five candidates listed, the market will resolve to the candidate who gets the fewest votes and is eliminated

  • If the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and another candidate drops out at the same time (eg. because they got almost as few votes and know that they can't win), the market will only resolve to the candidate who got the fewest votes

  • The intention is to resolve to one candidate, but if it is impossible to separate two eliminated candidates (eg. two candidates make a joint announcement that they are withdrawing or two candidates tie for the fewest votes and both withdraw rather than drawing lots), the market will resolve 50/50 to those candidates.

Related markets:

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/SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-ode3dvxivd

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/SimonGrayson/will-suella-braverman-defect-to-ref

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@traders

As traders on this market suspected, Mel Stride is gone!

He didn’t get any more votes than he got in the first round, so he is eliminated.

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