2024 UK local elections - how may seats with the Conservative Party lose?
Mini
21
4.5k
resolved May 6
100%97%
400-499
0.1%
They will not lose seats
0.2%
1-99
0.4%
100-199
0.5%
200-299
1.4%
300-399
0.4%
500-599
0.3%
600+

The UK local elections take place on 2nd May 2024.

Most of the seats which are up for grabs this time were last contested in 2021 - they should have been contested in 2020 but the local elections were delayed that year thanks to the Covid pandemic and lockdowns.

The Tories are defending an estimated 985 council seats (including seats where Conservative candidates won but later defected).

How may seats will they lose in these local elections?

Resolution notes:

  • The source of truth for this market will be the BBC's reporting of the results. In the very unlikely event that the BBC do not report seat losses, I will use a suitable alternative such as the Guardian.

  • This market is about their net losses. So if they lose 105 seats but pick up 10 seats elsewhere, that would count as losing 95 seats.

  • There will have been some changes to boundaries, the way that seats are allocated, etc. so bear in mind that the figures quoted by the media will be notional losses in some cases. This shouldn't matter to the market resolution since I will be going by BBC figures regardless of what the underlying numbers mean!

Other local election markets (including the Blackpool South by-election which is happening on the same day):

/SimonGrayson/london-mayoral-election-will-sadiq

/SimonGrayson/which-party-will-win-the-blackpool

/SimonGrayson/blackpool-south-byelection-who-will

/SimonGrayson/blackpool-south-byelection-will-ref

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The BBC's final count is a loss of 474 seats, so this resolves to 400-500.

Is this net or overall? E.g. if they lose 2 but gain 2 others, is it 2 or 0?

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