The 2024 UK local elections are taking place on 2nd May.

The most high profile election of the day will be the London Mayoral election where Sadiq Khan is hoping to win an unprecedented 3rd term as Mayor of London.

While Khan is a controversial figure, his main Tory rival in this year's race is the shockingly embarasing Susan Hall. Hall has made the headlines for liking Twitter comments praising Enoch Powell and Donald Trump, for claiming to have been robbed when she lost her wallet and for her lack of knowledge when it comes to

Manifold thinks that Khan will win the vote - /cash/will-sadiq-khan-be-reelected-mayor

But will he win by the largest margin ever, beating Ken Livingstone's record set in the first Mayoral election in 2000? The leaderboard currently looks like this:

1. Ken Livingstone (2000) - 15.8%

2. Sadiq Khan (2016) - 13.6%

3. Ken Livingstone (2004) - 10.8%

4. Sadiq Khan (2021) - 10.4%

5. Boris Johnson (2008) - 6.4%

6. Boris Johnson (2012) - 3.0%

Important note - the voting system has changed since the last election. Previously, the election was run on the supplementary vote system where voters could register a first and second choice. No candidate ever received an absolute majority of the votes, so the results were always based on the other candidates' votes being redistributed to the top two candidates based on second choice votes.

For 2024, this will be run as a FPTP election where voters only vote for one candidate and whichever candidate gets the most votes will win. For the purposes of this market, I will be comparing the winning candidate's vote share to the candidate who comes second to see if this is a bigger majority than Livingstone's majority after votes had been redistributed in 2000.

If this is a close one, I will base it on the exact figures for 2000 and 2024 rather than the rounded figures.