Will there be a Democratic Supreme Court majority before the advent of AGI? | Manifold

Will there be a Democratic Supreme Court majority before the advent of AGI?

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resolved Dec 26

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N/A

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Creator is inactive, and criteria are very vague for what counts as AGI. Resolving N/A.

I think for questions like this, it should be specified in terms of a pair of other questions, or at least very clearly specify both halves of the question.

If folks want to trade on this, let's get a new and better-defined question set up.

predictedNO

@EvanDaniel cough cough

https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/will-there-be-a-democratic-supreme-8dba14cccb2a?r=U2VtaW90aWNSaXZhbHJ5

@SemioticRivalry looks excellent, thank you!

predictedNO

@SimonBazelon this should resolve NO, as GPT4 is AGI, or the market should be open again

Why is this closing this year? We don't have AGI yet.

What are you defining as AGI?

@DAL59 Passes Turing test and is able to consistently identify objects.

@EnopoletusHarding to easy. maybe you should anchor it to other specialized market like:
/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-fire-alarm-for-agi

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Related questions

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2026?

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2027?

Will there be a Democratic Supreme Court majority before the advent of AGI?

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we achieve AGI before Democrats win their next trifecta?

Will the US Senate confirm an opposite-party Supreme Court nominee before 2030?

Will we have AGI before the US makes any major changes to Social Security?

If Democrats win a trifecta in 2028, will they expand the Supreme Court by 2032

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