Will we achieve AGI before Democrats win their next trifecta?
Basic
8
Ṁ244
2033
68%
chance

Based on an aside from this post that mentioned the possibility of this happening: https://www.secondbest.ca/p/before-the-flood

This market resolves YES if an AGI exists, according to the market linked below, before the next Democratic governing trifecta begins.

/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708

I will defer to that market's judgement for all questions about whether a certain system is an AGI or not.

For this market, a Democratic governing trifecta means any period of time in which the Democratic caucus holds the majority in the U.S. House and Senate, and there is a Democratic president, unless the president is a lame duck president. In other words, it doesn't count the brief time between the new Congress and the new president being sworn in if the incoming Congress and outgoing president are Democratic but the new president is not. If the dates at which various officials are sworn in were to change, it would also exclude any other case when there was a brief "trifecta" because of the slight overlap between a lame duck chamber of Congress and/or president and the incoming one.

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The market currently has a 77% chance of chance of AGI in 2032 or earlier, 64% chance of 2028 earlier, and even a 51% chance that it happens in 2026 or earlier. One of these markets has to be mispriced.

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