If Biden wins, will China invade Taiwan? | Manifold

If Biden wins, will China invade Taiwan?

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resolved Jul 26

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If Biden wins the US 2024 election, will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? For the purpose of this market, an invasion is defined as any military offensive aimed at establishing control over any portion of Taiwan.

This market resolves N/A if Biden does not win the 2024 election or if China invades Taiwan before the 2024 election.

Trump market: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/if-trump-wins-will-china-invade-tai

🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

🇹🇼 Taiwan

China Taiwan potential conflict

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Does "Taiwan" in these markets include Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu, Itu Aba and Pratas? (Combinations thereof)

@JoshuaWilkes Yes, "Taiwan" is all territory currently administered by the Republic of China, including these islands

@Simon74fe I would suggest you use the verb 'administered' rather than 'claimed' here. 😃

@JoshuaWilkes Thanks, good suggestion. I edited my comment

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