Theis Market will resolve as yes if the June 20th Earthquake 22 miles SW of Semnan is judged by authoritive experts to be a nuclear test.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if authoritative experts determine that the June 20, 2025, earthquake, located 22 miles southwest of Semnan, Iran, was caused by a nuclear test. Confirmation must come from reputable sources such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) or similar authoritative bodies. If no such determination is made by Sep 30, 2025, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Iran is situated in a seismically active region due to the convergence of the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates, making natural earthquakes common. Semnan province, in particular, has experienced several earthquakes in the past. For instance, a magnitude 4.5 earthquake occurred near Semnan on October 5, 2024, which was later confirmed by studies to be of natural origin, despite initial speculations of a nuclear test. (phys.org)

The CTBTO operates a global monitoring system designed to detect nuclear tests. Their analyses have previously identified and debunked claims of nuclear tests associated with seismic events in Iran. (logicallyfacts.com)

Considerations

Given the region's seismic activity, distinguishing between natural earthquakes and potential underground nuclear tests requires detailed analysis of seismic data. Nuclear detonations produce distinct seismic signatures compared to natural earthquakes. Traders should monitor official statements from organizations like the CTBTO and other authoritative seismological institutions for accurate information regarding the June 20, 2025, event.