Resolves YES if by the end of June 2024, the Manifold loan system satisfies the following criteria:
1. Doesn't lose the bank mana over time. Right now any user that loses a bunch of bets goes into negative mana, and this mana never gets reclaimed from them in any way. This leads to mana inflation and incentivizes bad bets and overleveraging. To satisfy this criterion, the loan system needs to somehow be able to reclaim losses. Note that this property only needs to hold, roughly, on average. It's fine if the "bank" loses money from time to time
Doesn't incentivize holding. Right now selling shares is a bad idea in many cases, since you have to repay loans on selling. Sometimes selling even nets you negative mana. This incentivizes traders to trade less and makes people less liquid.
Doesn't make people regularly confused. Right now the loan buttons seems to be mostly satisfying this criterion.
I will not bet on this market
1,000