Will Manifold fix loans in H1 2024?
Mini
11
αΉ€820
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
N/A

Resolves YES if by the end of June 2024, the Manifold loan system satisfies the following criteria:
1. Doesn't lose the bank mana over time. Right now any user that loses a bunch of bets goes into negative mana, and this mana never gets reclaimed from them in any way. This leads to mana inflation and incentivizes bad bets and overleveraging. To satisfy this criterion, the loan system needs to somehow be able to reclaim losses. Note that this property only needs to hold, roughly, on average. It's fine if the "bank" loses money from time to time

  1. Doesn't incentivize holding. Right now selling shares is a bad idea in many cases, since you have to repay loans on selling. Sometimes selling even nets you negative mana. This incentivizes traders to trade less and makes people less liquid.

  2. Doesn't make people regularly confused. Right now the loan buttons seems to be mostly satisfying this criterion.

I will not bet on this market

Get αΉ€600 play money
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@mods n/a (see below)

bought αΉ€20 YES

Since they’re removing the loan system, how does this resolve? @Shump

@TonyPepperoni @Shump ping on this. i'm assuming that with them removed, they'd have to be reimplemented to be "fixed"? (i can't imagine "no loans" satsifies the criteria). but wanted to clarify

@Ziddletwix I don't think you can call it a fix if it's removed. Seems like a pretty clear N/A to me

I will keep this going until close on the off chance that loans will come back but will be requesting an NA on close

Does anyone know how to see the status on our loans ?

Are they tied only to bets we had already made when we took the loan(s)?

Is there a way to pay the loans down without cashing out the bets? Tia!

Betting yes on blind faith in the team.

Luckily I didn't get any traders yet πŸ˜‚ . I meant loans, not leagues. You can probably figure out what is wrong with them if you are following current events but I not provide any more details for now

@Shump i had so many ideas of matching like top people from one league (post promo) together, and putting the relegatees in their own one πŸ˜‚

@mattyb Yeah that's a problem too but I think we already have many markets for that.

I think leagues are hunkydory. What do you see needs fixing?

This is a tough one to randomly end up comment-less :(

@mattyb I’ll bet in a week when you add the description. Ftr I have guesses, but want to keep the experiment pure.

@mattyb Experiment already totally polluted since either it's loans or leagues or who knows whatever word beginning with L needs fixing.