Will @firstuserhere walk anything between 95k and 100k steps today (21st December)?
14
290แน€2406
resolved Dec 22
Resolved
NO
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doesn't include 100k precisely? if he literally stops and falls when he reaches it

@TheBayesian No, doesn't include is definitely the spirit here. Also in case the watch doesn't show the specific amount of steps. It has to be 95k <= steps < 100k

The cover art for these walking markets all slap

He's barely on pace for 100k and the main market is overpriced. This is probably TOO low

@Eliza Why did you buy YES then?

@Shump I think he has close to 50% chance of running out of time between 95 and 100!

@Eliza tell me what's happening Eliza I just changed my no to yes on the main market. Is he missing the target??

@Eliza Then bet on the main market. This should not be priced anywhere higher than 1-x, where x is the price of the main market. But thanks for allowing me to hedge I guess?

predictedYES

@Shump I already sold over 5000 shares in the other market.

@Eliza he might fall short on this attempt, but he can try again!

https://manifold.markets/Fion/if-firstuserhere-fails-to-complete?r=Rmlvbg

yeah seems pretty plausible that he fails and tries again and does it

@TheBayesian I've not seen a comment where I could say this so far but you're it.

If he fails he needed this. At least, if his feet didn't develop blisters that will be too long a time healing. In that case he needed this week's and weeks ago.

I was betting no so far because he didn't put in sufficiently long unbroken walks to actually damage his body repeatedly, so that recovery was recovery from actual damage, not just a long days walk (50k).

But, today's walk is the kind of damage that if he fails, and plus binge eats protein to fully recover, he will actually have a body which remembers and acclimates to that damage. And then some.

I thought he needed two 70k's to be a yes. But I guess he's just acquired a hard head. Tonight or new year's eve, he's got a really good shot.

@TheBayesian I thought this was in the weight loss thread but it actually still makes the same sense here ๐Ÿคท

@VAPOR yeah good point tbh. I'm updating against him succeeding try 2

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