Will a NATO or EU nation declare a national emergency due to AI before 2026?
Plus
26
Ṁ562Dec 31
18%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By AI, we mean: any threat, disaster, or attack that is substantially of AI/ML origin, control, influence - or is at the heart of cause for declaring an emergency.
This could include a major data breach or loss of digital services due to an attack using AI. It could include a AI drone swarm attack. It could include prolific creation and spread of misinformation generated by AI.
The AI involved does not be controlled by a person, state, or organisation. It does not need to be a sophisticated model, architecture, etc. for this question to resolve.
To resolve, a nation in NATO or the EU at the time must declare a state of emergency due to a threat, disaster or attack substantively caused, powered or enabled by AI.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
64% chance
AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?
54% chance
Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
35% chance
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
35% chance
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
42% chance
Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?
70% chance
Will any state or autonomous region switch to AI governance, or majority AI decision making before 2050?
45% chance
Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2026?
29% chance
Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2027?
38% chance
Will an AI Doomer turn to violence by the end of 2026?
31% chance