Will a NATO or EU nation declare a national emergency due to AI before 2026?
37
1kแน7113resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By AI, we mean: any threat, disaster, or attack that is substantially of AI/ML origin, control, influence - or is at the heart of cause for declaring an emergency.
This could include a major data breach or loss of digital services due to an attack using AI. It could include a AI drone swarm attack. It could include prolific creation and spread of misinformation generated by AI.
The AI involved does not be controlled by a person, state, or organisation. It does not need to be a sophisticated model, architecture, etc. for this question to resolve.
To resolve, a nation in NATO or the EU at the time must declare a state of emergency due to a threat, disaster or attack substantively caused, powered or enabled by AI.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน184 | |
| 2 | แน69 | |
| 3 | แน38 | |
| 4 | แน35 | |
| 5 | แน21 |
People are also trading
Related questions
AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?
59% chance
[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
33% chance
Will there be evidence of war crimes by NATO member states counterfactually due to AI by 2030?
23% chance
Will any country declare an AI eligible to apply for citizenship by 2044?
42% chance
Will there be a war over AI before 2035?
29% chance
Will we have a sufficient level of international coordination to ensure that AI is no longer threat before 2030?
22% chance
Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?
80% chance
Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
64% chance
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
17% chance
Will AI start a war before 2040
20% chance