Will we find out in 2024 about breakthrough Chinese AI progress? (subjective resolution) | Manifold

Will we find out in 2024 about breakthrough Chinese AI progress? (subjective resolution)

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Resolves according to my opinion on whether Gwern is more correct here.

https://twitter.com/gwern/status/1741875125471846837

This has a fairly high bar- think of it like, will Chinese output be at least somewhat comparable to the US.

Definitely would've resolved no in 2023, I'm not super impressed by an open source model getting close to 3.5 level of performance.

I will not bet in this market.

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