Has to be qualitatively better than e.g. GPT-4, or what OpenAI is currently developing. Resolves to whatever mechanism Manifold uses to adjudicate complicated resolutions in 2040, or my judgement if nobody disputes it.
Clarification: "Current" as of December 2023, or, current as of whatever day it is today, for all future days until 2040?
Example: Let's say the government is not, as of 2023, doing this, and by 2035 we know this to be true because something quantum crypto superintelligence. But, in 2026, the US government starts hiding AI capabilities beyond the then-current state of the art. This is discovered in 2035. Does the market resolve yes, or no?
As of december 2023 or the past 3 years let's say year, I think that's closest to the meaning of the title. So that resolves no