Independents that caucus with Republicans count towards the total. Republicans currently hold 49 seats and would need to gain 3 seats to resolve this as YES.

My main goal in this market is to get counterparties as I think I have quite different probabilities than other users on this question, and as such I will be betting in this market. In the event of a resolution ambiguity, I will contact any trustworthy-ish users and resolve to their majority opinion as opposed to my own, which could be biased due to me holding shares.