Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030?
62
1kṀ46142030
32%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Any law to qualify for YES must be actually enforced, i.e. if you will actually be arrested by any level of governmental body solely for expressing your preferred gender in public. Native reservations would count. Private action like excommunication from organized religious groups would not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030?
19% chance
Will a trans person be president of the USA by 2030?
1% chance
Will any state of the US legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
84% chance
Will every state of the US legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
20% chance
How many U.S. states will pass legislation related to transgender rights before September 8, 2025?
Will US state policies on transgender people be significantly more polarized at the beginning of 2026?
20% chance
Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?
14% chance
Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030?
14% chance
Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?
91% chance
Before the end of 2035, will transracialism become as common as transgenderism was in 2022?
4% chance