Which of these AI predictions will happen in 2024?

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Ṁ2287

Jan 1

17%

iOS update turning your iPhone into an intelligent wizard brick

45%

end-to-end music generators 2x better than Suno

-GPT-5, which Sam Altman said could be "the pivotal moment" more than ChatGPT was

31%

-Devin availability, and agents that can autonomously do real SWE

39%

agents doing all sorts of tasks, as a consequence of just swapping in stronger models

33%

Sora public release, and the proliferation of hyper-realistic AI video

88%

Video-input, long-context models. Gemini-1.5 and similar available to the public

92%

LLaMA-3 and GPT-4-level open-source models

95%

More robotics advances

I will probably resolve these according to my subjective opinion and not operationalize strict criteria, please bet (or don't) accordingly.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@SemioticRivalry Well Sora released and there's a decent amount of decently realistic videos out there. The exact criteria seem unclear though.

Resolution criterium?

@GazDownright It can cast spells such as Sending, Comprehend Languages, or Fireball.

its not composition thats going to differentiate music generators in the future, but more of style, agree or disagree?

elaborate a bit? If SIRI gets a major update - is that a fairly intelligent wizard brice? is it about agents in ios?

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