Will there be 100 million famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?
Plus
29
Ṁ30862032
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In 2022-Dec Peter Zeihan claims in a presentation that lots of people will die from famine soon.
Resolves "Yes" if at the end of 2032, there is credible reporting or data, showing that 100 million people died from famine during the decade from 2023-Jan to 2032-Dec, inclusively.
This market is partly an open "bet" with @Bioliberalism, and I will be placing trades on this market.
Click here for a 1bn deaths version of this question.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
100m deaths would be equivalent to annual rate of ~125 per 100k on this chart, i.e. on a par with the worst decade on record, the 1870s. (Assuming I'm calculating correctly).
https://ourworldindata.org/famines#long-term-trends-in-global-famine-mortality
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be 1 billion famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?
7% chance
Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?
48% chance
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
35% chance
Will there be over 100,000 global malaria deaths in [each of 2028..2034]?
Will there be less than 350 million people in extreme poverty by 2030?
34% chance
Will Malaria Deaths go up in 2023?
33% chance
By 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
79% chance
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
21% chance
Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?
40% chance
Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?
18% chance