Will at least 3 million Americans die from nuclear war in 2022? | Manifold

Will at least 3 million Americans die from nuclear war in 2022?

Basic

46

Ṁ7677

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

In the event of needing a body count, I'll refer to whichever estimates are available. If none are available I'll try to make a reasonable guess. For semi-attributable and delayed-attributable (e.g. some people starving due to infrastructure loss) I'll try to make inclusions if it seems obvious those deaths would not have happened without the nuclear exchange.

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If this happens, I am extremely unlikely to care about the M$

Buying some of both to get the pool higher

Betting on people pulling money for other investments

this was actually a miss click. efficient markets ftw

updating on putin allegedly saying things which sound uncomfortably like nuclear threats

Buying mostly to increase the size of the pool

this really needs a bigger ante to be worth betting on seriously

math bad

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