The person must have been credibly motivated by the profits of a Manifold market. It must have been a death, lifespan or assassination market about the victim.

It's insufficient if the subject is murdered, but there is no credible profit motive from that Manifold market. For example, if their neighbor murders them, but the murderer didn't bet on death in the Manifold market, nor had they been compensated by anyone who did, then that wouldn't count.

It's also insufficient if a random Manifold user commits murder about someone with an unrelated type of market about them. The market's resolution must be based on the death or lifespan of the victim.

It can still count if the murderer never cashes it out a position (in case they were unable to, or something prevented them).

If we never see a credible case of this, then resolves as "No" in 2035-Jan.