This market assesses the likelihood of a significant military conflict occurring before June 21, 2025. A 'significant military conflict' is defined as an armed engagement between state or non-state actors resulting in at least 100 fatalities or substantial geopolitical impact. Resolution will be based on credible news reports from sources such as Reuters, BBC, or Associated Press.
Update 2025-06-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the Iran-Israel situation, the creator has stated that an event considered a continuation of the prior conflict may not be sufficient for a YES resolution. They are monitoring the situation for further developments.
1,000@WilliamGunn initially it seemed to only be a continuation of what was going on before. Both sides lobbing missiles at eachother. I'm still watching to see how this develops.
@ScottO Striking nuclear facilities and assassinating top military commanders from Israel's side and striking Tel Aviv from Iran's side is a step-change and quite significant.