This market assesses the likelihood of a significant military conflict occurring before June 21, 2025. A 'significant military conflict' is defined as an armed engagement between state or non-state actors resulting in at least 100 fatalities or substantial geopolitical impact. Resolution will be based on credible news reports from sources such as Reuters, BBC, or Associated Press.

• Update 2025-06-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the Iran-Israel situation, the creator has stated that an event considered a continuation of the prior conflict may not be sufficient for a YES resolution. They are monitoring the situation for further developments.

• Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, the creator has acknowledged newly confirmed information that is being considered for a YES resolution. The details being weighed against the resolution criteria include:

  • A US statement of support for Israel

  • The confirmed deaths of several senior Iranian officials

  • Large-scale retaliatory strikes involving 100+ sites, 200+ aircraft, and hundreds of missiles and drones

• Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is resolving the market. See the linked comment for their detailed reasoning.