This market assesses the likelihood of a significant military conflict occurring before June 21, 2025. A 'significant military conflict' is defined as an armed engagement between state or non-state actors resulting in at least 100 fatalities or substantial geopolitical impact. Resolution will be based on credible news reports from sources such as Reuters, BBC, or Associated Press.
Update 2025-06-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the Iran-Israel situation, the creator has stated that an event considered a continuation of the prior conflict may not be sufficient for a YES resolution. They are monitoring the situation for further developments.
Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, the creator has acknowledged newly confirmed information that is being considered for a YES resolution. The details being weighed against the resolution criteria include:
A US statement of support for Israel
The confirmed deaths of several senior Iranian officials
Large-scale retaliatory strikes involving 100+ sites, 200+ aircraft, and hundreds of missiles and drones
Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is resolving the market. See the linked comment for their detailed reasoning.
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