This market assesses the likelihood of a significant military conflict occurring before June 21, 2025. A 'significant military conflict' is defined as an armed engagement between state or non-state actors resulting in at least 100 fatalities or substantial geopolitical impact. Resolution will be based on credible news reports from sources such as Reuters, BBC, or Associated Press.
Update 2025-06-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the Iran-Israel situation, the creator has stated that an event considered a continuation of the prior conflict may not be sufficient for a YES resolution. They are monitoring the situation for further developments.
Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, the creator has acknowledged newly confirmed information that is being considered for a YES resolution. The details being weighed against the resolution criteria include:
A US statement of support for Israel
The confirmed deaths of several senior Iranian officials
Large-scale retaliatory strikes involving 100+ sites, 200+ aircraft, and hundreds of missiles and drones
Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is resolving the market. See the linked comment for their detailed reasoning.
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Total confirmed fatalities is now over 80 with nearly 400 reported injured.
More waves of missile and drone attacks couple hours ago.
Prolonged airspace closures and big Shockwaves in oil market.
UK, France and others confirmed to have activelyprovided support for Israel.
Resolving market because of above info
@WilliamGunn initially it seemed to only be a continuation of what was going on before. Both sides lobbing missiles at eachother. I'm still watching to see how this develops.
@ScottO Striking nuclear facilities and assassinating top military commanders from Israel's side and striking Tel Aviv from Iran's side is a step-change and quite significant.
@WilliamGunn I am watching the news for confirmation of what actually has taken place. Often the media exaggerates events.
@zsig I hate to be the guy who pastes in a LLM response, but it's corroborated by reporting, too. They're all using language like "major" and "unprecedented". Edited overly cranky part of the comment. Sorry, @ScottO .
https://mei.edu/publications/special-briefing-israel-strikes-irans-nuclear-program#pt3
@WilliamGunn if you wish to avoid my markets because I'm waiting on confirmation of information go for it.
In war information often changes. Fog of war is a thing. I'm trying to not influence the market in an unfair way.
Confirmed as of now US statement of supporting Israel in this engagement. Along with multiple retaliatory strikes. Iran has confirmed the death of several senior officials.
100+ sites attacked, 200+ aircraft involved, hundreds of missiles and drones.