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In order for a post to resolve YES, it must be substantially about UFOs (the threshold might be about 33%---references in links posts don't count), and it must consider factual questions about UFOs as being on-topic. It's okay if UFOs are then used as a springboard to another topic.
I will not be betting in this market.
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@Odoacre Identified flying objects are not unidentified flying objects. If he writes a post "look at all these balloons from $country; let's talk about geopolitics", that will not contribute to a YES resolution.
@Odoacre Yeah, so if there's doubt about them actually being balloons, and that doubt is on-topic for the post, then this'll definitely resolve YES.
@JonathanRay No. Scott Alexander must be the one doing the writing---it's not sufficient for text, written by another, to appear on the ACX blog.