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Odds higher with the Mexico shenanigans?

@Dave_9000ish Elaborate?

@jonsimon big hoo-ha on reddit atm around Mexican alien "discovery"

@jonsimon https://manifold.markets/SG/are-the-mexican-alien-bodies-real-s?r=RGF2ZV85MDAwaXNo

“Links for July” included two ufo links with commentary.

@VickiWilliams Which, per the rules, expressly doesn’t count?

@MattCWilson Sure, but seems relevant for probability of a future post.

Talk about UFOs has been enough lately I can see him making a post to address them, if only to dismiss them (which I assume counts)

Unidentified balloons are still flying objects

@Odoacre Identified flying objects are not unidentified flying objects. If he writes a post "look at all these balloons from $country; let's talk about geopolitics", that will not contribute to a YES resolution.

Not all of the "balloons" have been identified so he probably won't say that. He might say something like look at all these things being shot down and people assuming they are balloons

@Odoacre Yeah, so if there's doubt about them actually being balloons, and that doubt is on-topic for the post, then this'll definitely resolve YES.

Do book review finalists count

@JonathanRay No. Scott Alexander must be the one doing the writing---it's not sufficient for text, written by another, to appear on the ACX blog.

@JonathanRay

> it's not sufficient for text, written by another, to appear on the ACX blog.

Awww

Now I wish I could bet in this market! Just for the sake of registering predictions, I'd do 25% here.