Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2030?
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12
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2030
38%
chance

This is obviously not an easy thing to define, so I am intentionally not providing clear resolution criteria. It will be deemed substantively protected if it meets most of this non-exhaustive list of criteria

  • There is a clinic in each state other than CT, RI, and most cases receive care within 24 hours

  • There is a common, federally protected avenue for medication abortions

  • There are protections around miscarriages, such that you approx. cannot be investigated for fetal homicide if seeking medical care

  • Abortions are protected within (roughly) the first trimester, and states do not enforce any local laws to the contrary

  • There is no "substantive burden" to receive an abortion, such as: a multi-day waiting period; forced, medically unnecessary procedures like listening to the heartbeat; doctors being forced to read a script with medical misinformation

  • Wards of the state (such as foster kids, people in lockup) can reliably get access to abortion care

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