In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country? | Manifold

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

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2043

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Related to ACX post "Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know". Although this says "in at least one country", this is just about whether one country is able to detect it, and I will only mark it as true if it seems to be related to a global phenomenon; ie if there is a chemical spill in one country that causes its fertility to decrease, this will not count.

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I'm buying YES as a hedge/arbitrage to the https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-twenty-years-will-the-best-evide market, not because I think this is likely.

does this control for the age of the couples? i think that in 2016 the median maternal age at first birth was 26 years old, and in 2022 it's 30 years old. and i think maybe 27 versus 30 years for median paternal age at first birth

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