In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
41
1kṀ1102
2043
16%
chance

Related to ACX post "Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know". Although this says "in at least one country", this is just about whether one country is able to detect it, and I will only mark it as true if it seems to be related to a global phenomenon; ie if there is a chemical spill in one country that causes its fertility to decrease, this will not count.

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I'm buying YES as a hedge/arbitrage to the https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-twenty-years-will-the-best-evide market, not because I think this is likely.

does this control for the age of the couples? i think that in 2016 the median maternal age at first birth was 26 years old, and in 2022 it's 30 years old. and i think maybe 27 versus 30 years for median paternal age at first birth

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