In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?
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2.5kṀ12k
2043
73%
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Linked to the ACX post "Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know". If in 20 years, a brief review of the evidence convinces me that the sperm count decline was substantially real, I will resolve this YES. This is true even if the decline has stopped by 2043 (ie scientists then believe it was declining now, but is no longer declining at that time).

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A nicely calibrated market.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Seems like a self-correcting problem thanks to natural selection, so voting No.

@nsokolsky If environmental factors cause sperm counts to decline by (say) 50%, it seems unlikely that natural selection could double sperm counts in only 1–2 generations, especially since there are still ways to conceive even with a lower sperm count (e..g, by in vitro fertilization, or by having twice as much sex).

obesity lowers T which reduces fertility

I find it odd to care about it either way, it doesn't really change anything other than having to cum in your wife a few more times, and what kind of nerd is in a panic over that?

predictedYES

@VoyagerRock I think the panic is not about getting someone pregnant as soon as possible. It is about the fact that a lower sperm count sometimes cannot lead to a pregnancy at all.

predictedNO

@VoyagerRock yeah but what I want to get someone else's wife pregnant? If we're having an illicit affair there might not be enough time for that many orgasms.

predictedNO

@VoyagerRock To add to @HarishGanesan's point, sperm counts fall on a distribution. It's not just a matter of needing more sperm to get pregnant. A certain concentration of sperm per insemination is probably necessary. Given the existence of some threshold below which conception is difficult or impossible, a plenary lowering of sperm counts in everybody will necessarily move some people from being above that threshold to below it.

predictedYES

me personally i cant get off unless im thinkin bout bringing new suffering life into the world

@ShakedKoplewitz jesus christ man

i think sperm counts around the world are lowering and its based. its kinda creepy that so many rats are so invested in microscopic germs that dont have any impact on civilized society

If the answer is something like "yes but only because the average age is increasing" does this resolve as yes or no? i.e. the effect is shown to be real, but not in a way where it makes any difference to population-wide fertility or to regulatory trade-offs or to risks for individuals.

@ML Someone in the comments of the ACX post asserted that age was the primary cause and Scott said "Everyone realizes this and has controlled for it." https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/declining-sperm-count-much-more-than/comment/12870524

This suggests it won't count as a "substantially real" decline if the full explanation is "more people are old".

See also https://manifold.markets/Nps/in-twenty-years-the-best-evidence-w?r=c2FtYg

People are also trading

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
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Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?
Will the causal factors for the global secular decline in men's testosterone levels become clear by 2028?
49% chance
Will the WHO state that there is conclusive evidence that microplastics exposure reduces human fertility by 2026?
13% chance
Will evidence come to light by 2028 that microplastics have meaningfully lowered testosterone levels? (READ DESCRIPTION)
11% chance
In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the decline in testosterone levels over the past few decades?
Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2028?
47% chance
Will the US fertility rate surpass 2.1 for any year in the next decade?
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Will more than 1% of young men ages 25-35 in any of the following Western countries die during a single calendar year before 2030?
9% chance
Will Amish fertility drop below 5 children per women by the end of 2040?
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