Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor? | Manifold

Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?

51

1.5kṀ2324

2043

44%

Plastics

5%

Pesticides

0.3%

Sunlight and circadian rhythm

48%

Diet and obesity

2%

Porn

Related ACX post Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know. I will go off of some combination of how sure scientists are that it matters, vs. how big scientists think the effect is.

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Will this be based on what the science actually suggests or based on what prominent scientists are willing to say in public? Think of the difference between those two on anything remotely touching race in the last few years, for example.

@connorwilliams97 That's a fair observation. We'll probably focus on the publicly expressed opinions, as we can't truly know what's going on in people's minds

Sedentary lifestyle?
Frequent masturbation (regardless of porn or not)?

I can't believe they're still allowed to put Pthalates in OTC pills

If it turns out that counts have been lower because of worse compliance with instructions to refrain from ejaculation in advance of sampling, would that be decline or not?

@JeffKaufman I bought some based on guessing yes, but less than I would have if I was sure it was a yes.

Should there be a "something else" option?

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Related questions

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

In twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the decline in testosterone levels over the past few decades?

Will the contaminant hypothesis of modern obesity be judged true by expert consensus before 2025?

Will the causal factors for the global secular decline in men's testosterone levels become clear by 2028?

Will the WHO state that there is conclusive evidence that microplastics exposure reduces human fertility by 2026?

In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the increase in gender dysphoria over the past few decades?

Will Amish fertility drop below 5 children per women by the end of 2040?

Who will be the most successful pro-natalist by 2040?

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