Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?

1.5kṀ2732

2043

33%

Plastics

Pesticides

Sunlight and circadian rhythm

45%

Diet and obesity

11%

Porn

Related ACX post Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know. I will go off of some combination of how sure scientists are that it matters, vs. how big scientists think the effect is.

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If there's a consensus that the sperm count has been declining but no consensus about why, does it resolve to PROB?

Will this be based on what the science actually suggests or based on what prominent scientists are willing to say in public? Think of the difference between those two on anything remotely touching race in the last few years, for example.

@connorwilliams97 That's a fair observation. We'll probably focus on the publicly expressed opinions, as we can't truly know what's going on in people's minds

@LordDragon though we should rely more on what they say in journal papers (especially specialized ones rather than generalistic ones such as Nature or Science) than in e.g. press releases or TV interviews, as the former is a little less subject to social desirability bias as the technical jargon kinda protects it from the attention of randomers to some extent

Sedentary lifestyle?
Frequent masturbation (regardless of porn or not)?

I can't believe they're still allowed to put Pthalates in OTC pills

If it turns out that counts have been lower because of worse compliance with instructions to refrain from ejaculation in advance of sampling, would that be decline or not?