Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?
52
1.5kṀ26542043
30%
Plastics
3%
Pesticides
13%
Sunlight and circadian rhythm
50%
Diet and obesity
4%
Porn
Related ACX post Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know. I will go off of some combination of how sure scientists are that it matters, vs. how big scientists think the effect is.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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