In twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world
1k
2043
64%
chance

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ25 of NO

bought Ṁ25 of NO here and Ṁ25 of YES on https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-twenty-years-will-the-best-evide since this seems either equivalent or very slightly weaker.

Not a pure arbitrage, since there's still risk that Noah and Scott will dissagree.

predicts NO

@JeffKaufman unless Scott or I lose our mind completely, unlikely.

More related questions