How low will S&P500 go in 2025?
36
1kṀ11k
Dec 31
4,758 USD
expected
27%
Below 4600
22%
4600 - 4799
49%
4800 - 4999
0.7%
5000 - 5199
0.8%
5200 - 5399
0.8%
5400 - 5489

How low will it go?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the lowest value of S&P 500 index during regular trading hours. Resolution source will be Yahoo Finance, the lowest value in the 'Low' collumn, for the 2025 calendar year. At the time of creation of this market it is 5488.73. If the lowest value is between two ranges, the value will be rounded up.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
17d

Resolve 5000+ no,

17d

@100Anonymous This dependent multiple choice, which means I can't resolve the individual options, unfortunately.

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 25% order25d

The man cares about tariffs the way a little kid cares about ice cream.

He's wanted to do this for over 40 years.

The public markets have never shown his businesses the respect he believes they deserved.

Also I'm too chickenshit to buy SPY puts, so here I am.

@MichaelEdgar welp I guess he doesn't like tariffs that much.

bought Ṁ50 YES23d

@MichaelEdgar He backtracked?

23d

@ScipioFabius I mean... CNBC has "reports" that Hassett says Trump is considering a 90-day pause on all countries except China.

So either he caved or we are about to get a Truth Social post that wipes us all out.

23d

@MichaelEdgar now looking like it was fake. What a time to be alive. Sorry for the comment spam!

23d

@MichaelEdgar oh no, I appreciate the comments, I missed this and was looking at S&P500 and wondering what the hell is going on.

reposted 26d

Uh oh.

bought Ṁ250 NO27d

@ScipioFabius

can't resolve to this anymore (but this is dependent so this option can't resolve early, for other bettors)

26d

@Ziddletwix Yep, very unfortunate this cant be resolved.

bought Ṁ1,250 NO26d

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules