How low will S&P500 go in 2025?
How low will S&P500 go in 2025?
26
1kṀ6040Dec 31
4,790 USD
expected1D
1W
1M
ALL
25%
Below 4600
23%
4600 - 4799
34%
4800 - 4999
15%
5000 - 5199
1%
5200 - 5399
0.9%
5400 - 5489
How low will it go?
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to the lowest value of S&P 500 index during regular trading hours. Resolution source will be Yahoo Finance, the lowest value in the 'Low' collumn, for the 2025 calendar year. At the time of creation of this market it is 5488.73. If the lowest value is between two ranges, the value will be rounded up.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 25% order19h
The man cares about tariffs the way a little kid cares about ice cream.
He's wanted to do this for over 40 years.
The public markets have never shown his businesses the respect he believes they deserved.
Also I'm too chickenshit to buy SPY puts, so here I am.
bought Ṁ250 NO2d
can't resolve to this anymore (but this is dependent so this option can't resolve early, for other bettors)
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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