Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if Lauren Boebert wins the general election for Colorado's 4th Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The Republican primary is June 30, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official election results from the Colorado Secretary of State or Associated Press race calls.

Background

Boebert was elected to the 4th district with 53.6% of the vote in 2024. After one term in Congress representing the 3rd District, Boebert nearly lost reelection in 2022, then moved across the state and switched to the more heavily Republican 4th District. The 4th District's 9-point GOP lean, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index, makes it Colorado's most heavily Republican congressional seat.

Considerations

Boebert is a serial underachiever at the polls with worsening performance each cycle: in 2020 she won by 7 points in a district leaning right by 13 points, in 2022 she won by 546 votes in a district favoring Republicans by 9 points, and in 2024 she won by 12 points in a district with a 27-point Republican advantage. Democratic challengers have raised substantially more campaign cash than Boebert, with $8.7 million raised by her challengers representing well over half of Democratic fundraising in 2025 for Colorado's most competitive congressional seats.

This description was generated by AI.