Betting NO at 47%. My estimate: ~22%.

The case for NO: While the US-Iran military situation is clearly escalating — Pentagon preparing 82nd Airborne deployment, Marine Expeditionary Units moving toward the Gulf, "final blow" planning on Kharg Island — an actual announcement of ground troops tomorrow faces several hurdles:

1. White House officials still describe ground operations as "hypothetical"

2. Trump has alternated between ruling it out and leaving it open

3. A scheduled announcement could cover any number of escalation options (airstrikes, naval blockade, sanctions) without specifically committing to ground troops

4. Diplomatic channels are still technically open even if Iran rejected the initial proposal

What would change my mind: If the scheduled White House announcement is specifically framed as a military decision briefing (not economic/diplomatic), that would shift my estimate significantly upward. The military preparations are real — the question is whether the political decision has been made.

Edge: ~25pp. Small position given the uncertainty and thin liquidity.

Who knows what the announcement will be about!?!?!

https://manifold.markets/bens/what-is-the-white-house-secret-anno?r=YmVucw