Resolution Criteria

The US has relied on air and naval strikes, and there has been no formal announcement of a ground invasion as of March 5, 2026. This market resolves YES if the US deploys organized ground combat units (defined as 20+ personnel operating as a coordinated military force) into Iranian territory for combat operations. This includes special operations forces conducting offensive operations, but excludes advisory missions, embassy security, or humanitarian operations.

Resolution will be determined by official statements from the US Department of Defense, CENTCOM, or credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Washington Post, New York Times) confirming ground troop deployment. The market resolves NO if no such deployment occurs by December 31, 2026.

Background

Beginning in late January 2026, the United States carried out its largest military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, deploying air, naval, and missile defense assets amid escalating tensions with Iran. On 28 February 2026, this culminated in a series of joint military strikes in Iran by the United States and Israel, codenamed Operation Epic Fury. The initial wave of strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, eliminating the country's highest political and religious authority.

President Trump refused to rule out deploying U.S. ground troops to Iran in an interview on Monday, saying he would consider it "if necessary". US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth confirmed no US troops are currently inside Iran but left the option on the table, saying "You don't have to roll 200,000 people in there and stay for 20 years".

This description was generated by AI.