Will King Charles survive his cancer diagnosis?
Will King Charles survive his cancer diagnosis?
54
1kṀ25892029
49%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
King Charles III was recently diagnosed with cancer, as per a press release from Buckingham Palace (https://www.royal.uk/a-statement-from-buckingham-palace-5Feb24)
Also here: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68208157.amp
Survival in cancer is typically considered if the patient survives 5 years after the initial diagnosis.
Clarifications:
1) If King Charles dies of any causes in the 5 years after the diagnosis, market will resolve No.
2) If the date of diagnosis is made public, that will be the start date. If the date of diagnosis is not made public, it will be considered to start the day of the announcement, Feb 5th 2024, and the 5 year deadline will be on Feb 5th 2029.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What type of cancer does King Charles have?
What type of cancer does King Charles have?
What type of cancer does King Charles have?
Will King Charles die before December 2025
14% chance
Will King Charles die before the age of 80?
29% chance
What kind of cancer does Charles III have?
Will Kate Middleton die before King Charles?
14% chance
When will King Charles III die?
How Long will King Charles reign?
9.1
Will Charles cease to be King of the UK by end of 2025?
12% chance