god save the king and all but this market seems a little optimistic

@LukeShadwell if anything i disagree, i think there's much less than 1% chance that he dies in 2024

@Bayesian 2024 probably very unlikely I agree. I just see 1% as like whatever, my brain doesn’t work that low

@joeym4 can we resolve 2024 now?

@MichaelLittle it's a dependent market so nothing can resolve no until something resolves Yes

@shankypanky thanks

No way he survives until 2030 he was already half dead when he took charge

I asked gpt-4 what is likely a cancer that is found during the treatment of an enlarged prostate but not prostate cancer. It said bladder cancer.

@SteveMahoney I asked it about the survival rates and got:

"

The survival rate for bladder cancer in the United Kingdom varies based on the stage of the disease.

Here are the approximate 5-year survival rates for different stages of bladder cancer in England:

Stage 1: 80%

Stage 2: 45%

Stage 3: 40%

Stage 4: 10%

Overall, for people diagnosed with bladder cancer in England:

75% survive >1y

50% survive >5y

45% survive >10y

"

@TheAllMemeingEye coming back to this. I doubt hell die before 2030 solely because he has more access to treatments than most of the people studied in that study simply due to his position and wealth.

@noney fair enough