Will Charles cease to be King of the UK by end of 2025?
216
1.5k
1.2k
2026
11%
chance

Resolves YES if by the end of 2025, King Charles III ceases to be King of the United Kingdom for any reason (death, abdication, official end of the monarchy, etc). Otherwise resolves NO.

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Shifting from 35 to 42 without a single comment? How's a guy supposed to stay informed!

@Eliza The good @Joshua made a comment somewhere else.

@CertaintyOfVictory I have no idea what % this should be at, honestly. Manifold was certain Jimmy would die and yet he's still going.

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bought Ṁ200 YES

Bet this up because although he has the best healthcare possible, he has shown signs of rejecting some of it in favor of potions. https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/king-charles-doesnt-believe-chemo-32074683

sold Ṁ18 YES

@Panfilo Thank you!

bought Ṁ100 of NO

A year by year market for arbitrage and specificity:

sold Ṁ2 of YES

If the cancer wasn't serious, then it wouldn't have been reported.

They had hoped to cover it up with the surgery for the enlarged prostate. If the treatment had been successful, then we would never had heard about it at all, until some tabloid found out in a year or two.

@SteveSokolowski Speculation.

@CertaintyOfVictory Yes, I should clarify that the statement above is speculation.

However, the royal family historically has hardly been the most open of institutions.

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@CertaintyOfVictory Added further to this chain based on recent events: the newest statement reads that Charles has "a form of cancer."

Now, not only is it not "prostate surgery," we're up to "a form" of cancer. They didn't say "basal carcinoma," "polycythmia vera," "prostate cancer," or something similar. If one of those was true, they would have said it.

"A form of cancer" is more likely to mean "pancreatic cancer" or "lung cancer" or something similar. Charles suspended his duties and began treatment the next day. When I needed to go to the oncology department for weird blood results, there was a two-month delay. The reports were that he was "devastated" by his diagnosis. They immediately told Harry to return to the UK, and William is being rolled out to perform public events effective immediately. I am re-buying the YES shares I sold yesterday during that spike.

This is a shame, because the man was in such good health for his entire life. He's probably one of the few people that age who isn't severely obese by that point, and he still ended up with the worst straw.

bought Ṁ40 NO

@SteveSokolowski I don't know what you are on about. This is the latest statement:

"During The King’s recent hospital procedure for benign prostate enlargement, a separate issue of concern was noted. Subsequent diagnostic tests have identified a form of cancer. 

His Majesty has today commenced a schedule of regular treatments, during which time he has been advised by doctors to postpone public-facing duties. Throughout this period, His Majesty will continue to undertake State business and official paperwork as usual.

The King is grateful to his medical team for their swift intervention, which was made possible thanks to his recent hospital procedure. He remains wholly positive about his treatment and looks forward to returning to full public duty as soon as possible.

His Majesty has chosen to share his diagnosis to prevent speculation and in the hope it may assist public understanding for all those around the world who are affected by cancer."

https://www.royal.uk/a-statement-from-buckingham-palace-5Feb24

What in this statement contradicts what I said?

@SteveSokolowski just on the "next day" point, I don't think kings are subject to NHS waiting lists. They're not going to hang about.

@SteveSokolowski They found something during his prostate surgery. Since it wasn't caught by other diagnostic methods I think it's early stages and based on the anatomy probably either bladder cancer, colorectal cancer, renal cell cancer or lymphoma (in that order of probability). I'd give an aggregated probability of 75% (five-year survival), taking into account his age and the fact that he has the best health care possible.

I'm sorry there was a 2 month delay for you in oncology but I don't think the King of the United Kingdom not experiencing this delay is very meaningful in comparison.