When will I first use a driver-less car?
2
Ṁ1kṀ122031
March 2, 2030
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
50%
Before 2027
50%
Before 2028
50%
Before 2029
50%
Before 2030
50%
Before 2031
50%
Before 2032
47%
2032 or later
I live in Christchurch but will possibly move to Auckland soon. I use public transport a lot. I would be likely to at least try out driver-less vehicles if they were available at a similar price to present options (possibly once or twice even if they were more expensive). Will only count if the car in question is actually being used on the road routinely so if I some-how end up riding one at some sort of event or demo would not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
When will it first be possible to rent an autonomous vehicle to drive between cities in North America without a license?
When will Bryan Caplan buy his first driverless car?
When will the first fully driverless commercial ride-hailing trip take place in London?
4/8/27
When will a large majority of rideshare be done by self-driving cars?
By which year will there be self-driving cars in Houston?
When will vision-only level 4 self-driving be widely deployed?
5/30/29
When will a Tesla Robovan offer its first public, autonomous ride?
6/4/30
The first time I take a ride in a self-driving car, how will the vehicle be primarily branded? (I live in the UK, btw.)
When the first windowless/partially windowless, autonomous car without steering wheel and with reversed seats launches?
Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?
42% chance