When will Bryan Caplan buy his first driverless car? | Manifold

When will Bryan Caplan buy his first driverless car?

18

1kṀ2000

2041

1.9%

2024

13%

2025

4%

2026

8%

2027

6%

2028

7%

2029

5%

2030

7%

2031

7%

2032

7%

2033

7%

2034

7%

2035

1.7%

2036

1.7%

2037

1.7%

2038

1.7%

2039

1.7%

2040

13%

2041 or later

https://x.com/bryan_caplan/status/1758209764440354834?s=46

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Given his poll options start at 2028, I assume we're talking a fully driverless car, right?

Is there a reason he thinks he's going to buy one instead of just hailing one when he needs it. (In which case resolution is never)

Does he have a tesla, perchance. This would be a weird way for it to resolve where by the time he has a driverless car, it will be a car that he bought 4-7 years prior.

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