Will Varda Space Industries be able to land their capsule before the end of 2023?
36
219
1.7k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Varda Space Industries is a private spaceflight company focused on in-orbit manufacturing. On September 6th, their W series capsule currently in orbit was denied permission to land at Utah Test and Training Range by the FAA.

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For who's interested: They landed today

Will this market resolve Yes if they get the license, or if they successfully land?

predicted NO

@Mqrius FWIW I interpreted as "be able to" as "be permitted to", and the ambiguity didn't occur to me.

@chrisjbillington it's not the only ambiguity. If they get the permission before year end, but the permission is for a day in 2024, does this resolve Yes or No?

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington whereas I interpreted it as 'physically achieve' 🤣

predicted NO

@Mqrius I suppose so, but I'm very much reading it as they must have permission to (land before the end of 2023), not they must have (permission to land) before 2023. It's technically ambiguous, but since "before 2023" is closest to the landing rather than the permission in the sentence, I think it's the most natural interpretation (and the ambiguity also did not occur to me, maybe I need to lift my game here)

I'd bet my interpretation is what was intended by the creator (who is active, so we'll probably get clarification), if there would be any takers to bet on that :p

There's no objective truth here, since there's no objective way to judge their ability in every case. So yeah it would have to come down to Sailfish's specification. I do agree with you, Chris, that that's the most natural reading, but it's not the only reasonable one.

Interesting, I didn't think through the resolution criteria for long enough.

but the permission is for a day in 2024, does this resolve Yes or No?

This is a clear "No" to me, the capsule is what must be able to land before the end of 2023. This question is about the license though, I would say "Yes" requires they have permission to land in 2023, but it doesn't need to be successful. They must just have been "able to land". I think conclusively proving this requires that they actually attempt a landing, I'm not certain what I'll do in the case where they receive a license to land in 2023 but decide not to attempt it. I'm leaning towards "No" in that case.

Generally if I wanted to indicate "physically achieve" I would write "successfully land" instead of "able to land" but I agree that it's unclear.

@Sailfish If we make the market about receiving the license only, then I'd say just go by the date they're allowed to land from according to the license, even if they don't attempt it. It's the cleanest resolution criteria with no weird edge cases, assuming we'd get to see the license itself.

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