Will a spacecraft designed to land on an exoplanet be officially launched before the end of 2030?๐Ÿš€
31
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2031
5%
chance

This question seeks to predict whether a spacecraft specifically designed for landing on an exoplanet will be launched by the end of the year 2030. The term "exoplanet" refers to a planet outside our solar system. The launch of such a mission would represent a groundbreaking achievement in human space exploration.๐Ÿš€

Criteria for Resolution:

  • Resolution as "Yes":

    • An official announcement by a recognized space agency or private space company stating that a spacecraft designed to land on an exoplanet has been launched.

    • The launch must occur before the end of December 31, 2030.

    • The spacecraft's primary mission should include landing on the surface of an identified exoplanet, as opposed to merely orbiting or performing a flyby.

    • The announcement should be corroborated by credible sources in the space exploration community or by media coverage.

  • Resolution as "No":

    • No spacecraft designed for an exoplanet landing will be launched by any space agency or private space company by December 31, 2030.

    • Announcements or plans for future missions that have not yet been launched by the end of 2030 do not count towards a "Yes" resolution.

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Is the launch going to resolve YES, no matter whether the spacecraft actually makes it to the exoplanet? Should soft landing be the intended outcome or would an impactor count?

predicts YES

@mariopasquato
Thanks for your question!
You're right - the key point is whether a spacecraft intended for landing on an exoplanet will be launched by 2030. The outcome of the mission doesn't affect the resolution of this question. Whether it lands successfully, crashes, or something else, as long as it's launched with the goal of landing on an exoplanet, it counts.