In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?
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2029
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Examples of major hospitals would be institutions like Massachusetts General Hospital, or National University Hosptial in Signapore. This isn't meant to be too restrictive, you could also read this as affecting more than ten thousand concurrent patients. The intent is that it is both legal somewhere and has gained some amount of public acceptance.

Advertise means anything comparable to how hospitals currently treat the services they provide, for instance, Mass General currently advertises cancer treatment.

Primary method of diagnosis means that an AI evaluates symptoms and delivers a diagnosis which is expected to be followed in most cases. The diagnosis may be checked by a physician, but a physician is not using the AI as a tool. A symptom of this might be a significantly lower doctor to patient ratio than is currently common. The recent Alzheimer research, for example, would be a supplementary method of diagnosis.

Veterinarians will not count.

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"Growth in the AI health market is expected to reach $6.6 billion by 2021—that’s a compound annual growth rate of 40 percent. In just the next five years, the health AI market will grow more than 10x." — Accenture

Based on historical patterns and current AI advancements in healthcare, it's plausible that major hospitals may advertise AI as the primary diagnostic tool by 2028. The AI health market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 40% from 2021 to 2027, according to Accenture. Additionally, a report by Grand View Research estimated that the global AI in healthcare market would reach $60.8 billion by 2028, reflecting the increasing interest and investment in AI within the healthcare industry. While challenges remain, one primary concern is the lack of immediate economic incentive for the healthcare industry to adopt AI for initial diagnoses, as it may reduce traditional doctor visits and related profits. Nevertheless, the exposed scenario suggests a transformative shift in healthcare diagnostics.

https://www.accenture.com/au-en/insights/health/artificial-intelligence-healthcare

predicts YES

Most of diagnostics on serious diseases that require inpatient treatment are confirmed by medical imaging or histopathology. Both are based on imaging. Imaging is the easiest part of medical information where machine learning shows better than human accuracy. FDA already is approving CADe and CADx software. Therefore, it’s a YES

I would guess there are regulations in many countries that would literally make this illegal? Certain it wouldn't be supported by doctors themselves for the sake of better maintaining their position of power within the medical industry.

I really only see this happening in some poor backwater of Africa or South America where there's a chronic shortage of doctors.

predicts NO

@jonsimon I don't think you could call that backwater hospital major, in that case.

predicts YES

@jonsimon Then bet no? 😇

@xyz the criteria is

more than ten thousand concurrent patients.

So it doesn't depend on whether the hospital is a "backwater", whatever that means.

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