How many ML/AI-powered clinical diagnostic tests will become standard-of-care in the United States by April 21, 2033?
Basic
4
Ṁ42Jan 1
17
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There are many AI/ML-powered diagnostic tests in clinical use in the United States today, but almost none are "standard of care". Standard of care means that a test is part of guidelines for disease diagnosis. It takes a long time and many studies to achieve this status, but once it is done, the test becomes routinely used.
This is part of a bigger question regarding what impact AI/ML technologies will have in medicine. It is one way to quantify part of that impact, specifically in diagnoses of disease. Medicine moves slowly, hence this is a long-term prediction (9 years to resolve).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Greater than 1200 AI medical devices cleared by the FDA by the end of 2024?
25% chance
Will AI be regularly used to diagnose complex diseases by 2028?
32% chance
The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.
54% chance
In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?
32% chance
Will 1,000 AI medical devices be cleared by the FDA during 2024?
16% chance
Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030?
30% chance
Will the majority of US high school standardized tests be administered and graded by AI systems by 2030?
39% chance
Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?
39% chance
[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?
50% chance
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2030?