Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?
Plus
36
Ṁ39212035
78%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Background: Several startups and research labs are currently working on gametogensis with gay couples in mind.
Quibbles: Stillbirths or abortions don't count; the child must be viable for at least a day postpartum. "Gay couple" for the purposes of this market means two biological males or two biological females (regardless of gender identity or sexual orientation), not necessarily in a relationship with each other. The couple does not need to birth or carry the child to term themselves; surrogates are allowed/expected.
See also: /MetaculusBot/when-will-we-see-the-first-viable-h-19ca28a5b59f
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will I have a baby by the end of 2025?
23% chance
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
43% chance
By the end of 2045, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children?
36% chance
By the end of 2055, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally?
25% chance
Will a trans woman give birth before 2033?
22% chance
Will I have children by 2035?
45% chance
Will I have at least one child by the end of 2035?
61% chance
Will a human baby be born via IVG before 2030?
53% chance
By the end of 2045, will it be possible for someone born biologically male to get pregnant and have children normally?
21% chance
By the end of 2045, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally?
21% chance