@SG Resolves YES

@SG Does contributing to the charity lottery count toward this achievement?

@Quroe I don't think it should, personally

@realDonaldTrump @Quroe Check it out: https://manifold.markets/post/lowk-best-pull-request-weve-ever-se

For the people that are engaged in the comments, this would be a great quality of life improvement.

@SG link or didn't happen.

@SIMOROBO https://manifold.markets/shop

@SG oh that counts as merch? I thought we were getting hoodies.

@SIMOROBO oh, oops, i may have resolved this prematurely...

@SIMOROBO soon...

@SG

@SG Mana store and subscription plan are live at https://manifold.markets/shop

Leave feedback at

https://manifold.markets/post/mana-shop-membership-subscription

@EvanDaniel Something that doesn't have rollbacks. If I buy low and sell high, I get to be out of the market and keep my profit regardless of n/a or no n/a.

One implementation might look like: a three-outcome market with Y/N/NA options. UI/UX support that shows (maybe advanced mode only?) things like P(Y|~NA), P(NA). Support for limit orders on P(Y|~NA) and related. I buy P(Y|~NA) by buying Y shares and hedging with NA shares.

@EvanDaniel I kinda like the tradition of opening a "will market X resolve N/A" meta-market that can be used to hedge against a N/A resolution. Making that happen in a first-class way sounds... complicated.

@retr0id Yeah, that's a decent workaround. But it doesn't let me take profits! Rollbacks suck. Anyway, if Claude Code can implement a viewer and pricing for the 2x2 joint market case where I can buy P(A|B) with proper hedging, and it can, I don't think this is actually a thing that's "complicated".

@EvanDaniel It does let you take profits if you take a YES position in the meta-market proportional to your profits ;)

@retr0id Doesn't that have potential liquidity issues though? Ones that I kinda need to anticipate when I take the initial position, not just when exiting it?

❗

@Quroe I hope non-paying users don't end up feeling like second class citizens on this site

@Quroe I don't know if I'll manage to be the first, but I'm definitely buying a subscription the day this comes out if the price and benefits are even a little sane.

@xjp Admittedly I did buy a subscription, but it certainly wasn't because I felt like a second-class citizen without it. It also helps that it's paid in mana.

What are your feelings on what was implemented?

@SimonWestlake I agree, I don't mind it as long as it's paid in mana. Then it feels like "part of the game" rather than pay-to-win.

Every time there's a sub window (or whatever you would call it) and I try to scroll down it refreshes the page instead. I have to play predictle in only one direction because of this. I'm guessing it's an Android only thing

@NivlacM I experience this too. And in DMs.

@NivlacM In Predictle, try long tapping an item, then dragging it to the side first before dragging it vertically. This should be an okay Band-Aid for now.