Right now the app involves using the manifold website to access at least on Iphone.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, before July 1, 2027, Manifold Markets releases an official mobile application (for iOS and/or Android) that is built using a native UI framework (such as SwiftUI, Jetpack Compose, Flutter, or fully-native React Native UI elements), rather than primarily rendering their Next.js web application inside a WebView wrapper.

Specifically:

• The mobile app must render its core features (including browsing markets, placing bets, and viewing profiles) natively rather than pulling in the standard web interface via an iframe, WebView, or PWA-equivalent shell.

• Evidence of a native rebuild can come from official developer updates, the Manifold Changelog, Manifold's Substack, or public repository updates on the Manifold GitHub showing a transition away from react-native-webview wrapper code.

• If Manifold continues to rely on a WebView-based wrapper or only releases minor updates to their existing hybrid applications, this market will resolve to NO.

Background

Manifold's existing iOS and Android applications are primarily shells that wrap their Next.js web application using Expo and react-native-webview. Consequently, mobile app users are essentially navigating the responsive web version of manifold.markets inside an app frame. This market asks whether Manifold will transition to a fully native mobile application experience before July 2027.

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