When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders?
34
1.1kṀ29kDec 31
77%
Not before 2027
7%
Q4 2026 (Oct - Dec)
3%
Q3 2026 (Jul - Sep)
3%
Q2 2026 (Apr - Jun)
2%
Q1 2026 (Jan - Mar)
1.9%
Q4 2025 (Oct - Dec)
1.6%
Q3 2025 (Jul - Sep)
other = before 2024
Will look at the stat page. If it reads 100k, resolves to the relevant bucket.
I don't plan on doing detective work if it's manipulated. Having said that, if a considerable amount of traffic is fraudulent (e.g., 20%) I will possibly delay resolution to make necessary adjustments for blatant-bulk-manipulation. I'm not excluding alts, 10 person bot farms, whatever
If you manipulate this market by attracting users to the site, you may be eligible for a bounty! Let me know.
Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the trader stats figure found on the stat page. This clarifies that 'active users' in the market question refers to this specific metric.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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1,000 to start trading!