Active users
An active user is a user who has taken any action on the site.
14k yesterday; 14k avg last week
Active traders
An active trader is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question.
1175 yesterday; 1346 avg last week
Retention
What fraction of active traders are still active after the given time period?
New user retention
What fraction of new users are still active after the given time period?
Daily activity
Activation rate
Out of all new users, how many placed at least one bet?
D1 average new user bets
On average for new users, how many bets did they place in the first 24 hours?
Ratio of Active Users
Total mana bet
Sum of bet amounts. (Divided by 100 to be more readable.)
Home feed conversion rate
Interactions/views
,
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Top markets yesterday
Markets with the most activity in the past 24 hours.
Most traders
Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for VP? (Vice President)
412
Will Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resign or be fired before end of July?
293
YES
Is Joe Biden dead?
287
NO
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
243
YES
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
237
NO
Strikes on Iranian regime by 2026-01-16?
205
9%
Will the CrowdStrike outage be mostly fixed (~>75%) by the end of Friday?
169
YES
Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in his post-dropout address to the nation?
164
Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?
152
34%
Will U.S. weapons strike targets inside Iran by January 31, 2026?
143
40%
Most views
Strikes on Iranian regime by 2026-01-16?
1000
9%
Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?
849
34%
Will U.S. weapons strike targets inside Iran by January 31, 2026?
499
40%
Which manifold user is the Predictle GOAT? [TRIAL BY COMBAT]
362
How many stars will be on the official flag of the USA on Mar 1? [Resolves to PROB]
261
50%
Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?
256
27%
Who is the Top Living Human (Physical strength, Intelligence, Wealth)
248
Will a foreign military strike Iran this week, and will the regime fall this year?
219
Resolves to atomic number (PROB) of the element Tin (by Feb 1st)
217
50%
Manifold Bingo 2026 (Alpha)
183