Active users
An active user is a user who has taken any action on the site.
14k yesterday; 23k avg last week
Active traders
An active trader is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question.
1042 yesterday; 1027 avg last week
Retention
What fraction of active traders are still active after the given time period?
New user retention
What fraction of new users are still active after the given time period?
Daily activity
Activation rate
Out of all new users, how many placed at least one bet?
D1 average new user bets
On average for new users, how many bets did they place in the first 24 hours?
Ratio of Active Users
Total mana bet
Sum of bet amounts. (Divided by 100 to be more readable.)
Home feed conversion rate
Interactions/views
,
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Top markets yesterday
Markets with the most activity in the past 24 hours.
Most traders
Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for VP? (Vice President)
412
Will Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resign or be fired before end of July?
293
YES
Is Joe Biden dead?
287
NO
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
243
YES
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
237
NO
Will the CrowdStrike outage be mostly fixed (~>75%) by the end of Friday?
169
YES
Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in his post-dropout address to the nation?
164
Which country will win Euro 2024?
140
Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump?
133
NO
Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)
131
YES
Most views
Is Benjamin Netanyahu alive on March 14 2026?
442
99%
Will Netanyahu make a verifiable, live public appearance by March 31, 2026?
392
68%
Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran in 2026?
295
74%
Trump visits China by end of March 31?
252
11%
Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $95 on March 20, 2026?
220
63%
Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?
187
31%
Leader of Iran at end of 2026?
173
Who will attend the Oscars?
171
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
152
Will I attend MIT in Fall of 2026?
149
99%