Active users
An active user is a user who has taken any action on the site.
30k yesterday; 39k avg last week
Active traders
An active trader is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question.
707 yesterday; 699 avg last week
Retention
What fraction of active traders are still active after the given time period?
New user retention
What fraction of new users are still active after the given time period?
Daily activity
Identity Verifications
Daily identity verification attempts and their outcomes.
Activation rate
Out of all new users, how many placed at least one bet?
D1 average new user bets
On average for new users, how many bets did they place in the first 24 hours?
Ratio of Active Users
Total mana bet
Sum of bet amounts. (Divided by 100 to be more readable.)
Home feed conversion rate
Interactions/views
,
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Top markets yesterday
Markets with the most activity in the past 24 hours.
Most traders
Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for VP? (Vice President)
412
Will Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resign or be fired before end of July?
293
YES
Is Joe Biden dead?
287
NO
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
243
YES
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
237
NO
Will the CrowdStrike outage be mostly fixed (~>75%) by the end of Friday?
169
YES
Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in his post-dropout address to the nation?
164
Which country will win Euro 2024?
140
Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump?
133
NO
Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)
131
YES
Most views
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest opening weekend of all time?
670
86%
Will I contact my ex, and how will it go?
274
Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]
216
August 2026 AI model releases
185
Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 7)?
154
54%
AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?
100
51%
Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?
97
91%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day grosses over $2B?
93
97%
Who will win the Redbull Streamer Games 2026 (Ludwig)
87
Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in July 2026?
76
95%