In the light of the events of Jan 6, there are some fears that if Trump wins in 2024, the next election cycle in the US will be influenced by him. In this market I'm trying to explore different possible scenarios.
The answers for the question are designed to a) be mutually exclusive, and b) cover all possible scenarios. In case I've missed some possibilities, please let me know in the comments, and I'll add respective options (hence the "Other"). In case there's any disagreement the first answer that matches the events wins.
Clarification regarding what counts as "opposition": If the election happens, Trump is still active, but doesn't endorse any candidate, then I'll count him as implicitly endorsing the republican candidate, UNLESS he completely breaks any ties with GOP in which case I will count GOP candidate as opposition. In particular, if Trump endorses an independent candidate, both GOP and Democratic candidates count as opposition.
Trump is considered incapacitated if he doesn't make active public appearances for at least 6 consecutive months before the end of 2028.
Election process is considered significantly changed if the results of the election can be plausibly affected by the changes or if the schedule of the election and power transition is changed. ID requirement is unlikely to change the outcome, so I don't consider it as "significant change".
I do not bet on my own questions.
1,000People are also trading
@OlegEterevsky no, just seems reasonable based on his age
@OlegEterevsky (at least my bets are based on this; see the comment https://manifold.markets/Tiger/trump-tries-to-serve-a-third-term#0vmkwh01a3hb and replies)
@DanHomerick I believe in a market with mutually exclusive answers it’s impossible to resolve just one option.
@traders To make the priorities of the answers clearer I enumerated them in the order in which they will be checked. This shouldn't change the resolution rules at all, just makes them clearer and removes the need for the long description section regarding which options win over which.
A lot of markets will stay inaccurate for a few days since the price movements are recent. good observation tho,
This market could be affected by the possibility of Biden withdrawing his candidacy, since it only asks about Trump's chances. But still it gave Trump much lower chances than other markets.
Interestingly this market gives Trump 47% chance of winning while the main election prediction market gives 51%. I sense some free mana here, but I don’t bet on my own questions.
There's weaker incentives to correct prices on this market because the market resolves in 4 years instead of a few months. but yeah, true
This particular option will go to either 0 or 100% by the end of the year, so it will be easy enough to liquidate.
You mean that selling at 5% will not cover the expected profit from the 5% difference in probability? Makes sense
@MaybeNotDepends Everyone who is saying "Trump does not win" if the premise is "he won" is by default wrong, and it can be resolved as such.
@MaybeNotDepends I thought its inclusion implies the question asker meant to ask "How will Trump's victory affect the transition of power be like in 2028". If we shouldn't be considering it an option it shouldn't have been included
@MaybeNotDepends The market has to resolve somehow if Trump doesn’t win and N/A resolution is no longer possible.
Empirically ~20% of Presidents have died while in office. Considering his age and baseline health, I believe option 2 is under bought. The SSA life expectancy tables for an 77 year old imply 10.58 years of expected life for a male.
@CharlieGarcia The conspiracies will never end if this happens. It might be the most dangerous outcome. I have to think of a phrasing for a market here.
What if a Republican candidate wins in 2028, but is not a "candidate endorsed by Trump"? Would they count as an "opposition" candidate?
If Trump wins in 2024,...
Top option right now, which is literally impossible
Trump doesn't win in 2024
@percentage Markets don't resolve as N/A nowadays, so there has to be an option to resolve it in case Trump doesn't win.