@traders To make the priorities of the answers clearer I enumerated them in the order in which they will be checked. This shouldn't change the resolution rules at all, just makes them clearer and removes the need for the long description section regarding which options win over which.

This market still thinks that Trump has 56% to lose the election...

A lot of markets will stay inaccurate for a few days since the price movements are recent. good observation tho,

This market could be affected by the possibility of Biden withdrawing his candidacy, since it only asks about Trump's chances. But still it gave Trump much lower chances than other markets.

Interestingly this market gives Trump 47% chance of winning while the main election prediction market gives 51%. I sense some free mana here, but I don’t bet on my own questions.

There's weaker incentives to correct prices on this market because the market resolves in 4 years instead of a few months. but yeah, true

This particular option will go to either 0 or 100% by the end of the year, so it will be easy enough to liquidate.

No, it goes to ~5% or YES, because 5% over 4 years is below the risk free interest rate

You mean that selling at 5% will not cover the expected profit from the 5% difference in probability? Makes sense

You don't negate your premise in an answer. It's bad logic.

@MaybeNotDepends Everyone who is saying "Trump does not win" if the premise is "he won" is by default wrong, and it can be resolved as such.

@MaybeNotDepends I thought its inclusion implies the question asker meant to ask "How will Trump's victory affect the transition of power be like in 2028". If we shouldn't be considering it an option it shouldn't have been included

@MaybeNotDepends The market has to resolve somehow if Trump doesn’t win and N/A resolution is no longer possible.

Empirically ~20% of Presidents have died while in office. Considering his age and baseline health, I believe option 2 is under bought. The SSA life expectancy tables for an 77 year old imply 10.58 years of expected life for a male.

@CharlieGarcia The conspiracies will never end if this happens. It might be the most dangerous outcome. I have to think of a phrasing for a market here.

What if a Republican candidate wins in 2028, but is not a "candidate endorsed by Trump"? Would they count as an "opposition" candidate?

@ADings See this comment below.

If Trump wins in 2024,...

Top option right now, which is literally impossible

Trump doesn't win in 2024

@percentage Markets don't resolve as N/A nowadays, so there has to be an option to resolve it in case Trump doesn't win.

What counts as "significantly"? What if everything remains nominally the same but something like a " good character clause" is added to the list of presidential requirements, for instance?

@JessicaEvans It would include any changes that could materially affect the election results. So for example laws in Russia prohibiting "foreign agents" to participate in elections would qualify since they've been used to exclude opposition candidates.

I assume you will resolve more than one as yes?

@GordanKnott the description says they are meant to be mutually exclusive

@GordanKnott Could you give an example where more than one options would apply? I'll try to clarify them

Any/all of the top three could be caused by the bottom one

@Bayesian

@GordanKnott Thanks, I’ll clarify, that the last option has higher priority than the other ones.