If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?
Basic
91
11k
2029
53%
Trump doesn't win in 2024
3%
Trump wins in 2024 and dies in office or is incapacitated
9%
Trump wins in 2024 and the candidate endorsed by Trump wins in 2028
27%
Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office
4%
Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, but power transition doesn't happen on schedule
0.3%
Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, on Jan 20 some states and/or federal agencies recognize one candidate, while others — another
0.6%
Trump wins in 2024, there is no agreement among independent observers as to who wins the election in 2028
1.8%
Trump wins in 2024, election process in 2028 is significantly changed
0.9%
Other

In the light of the events of Jan 6, there are some fears that if Trump wins in 2024, the next election cycle in the US will be influenced by him. In this market I'm trying to explore different possible scenarios.

The answers for the question are designed to a) be mutually exclusive, and b) cover all possible scenarios. In case I've missed some possibilities, please let me know in the comments, and I'll add respective options (hence the "Other").

Answer 2 wins if Trump dies, or is incapacitated to the extent that he doesn't play any role in 2028 election and doesn't endorse any candidate. Answers 3-8 assume that he does play some role in the election and has a preferred candidate.

Answer 4 (transition of power to the opposition candidate) wins provided the opposition candidate is inaugurated and moves in White House on the expected dates, even if there are some incidents surrounding this process. The scenario of power transition in 2020-21 would've resulted in this answer winning.

Answer 5 wins if the opposing candidate wins (according to independent observers or similarly trustworthy sources), but the transition of power is delayed in some way. The power remains with Trump or his preferred candidate.

Answer 6 is similar to answer 5, but additionally the situation is close to civil war, in which some federal agencies, states, or branches of government recognize one president and others — another.

Answer 7 covers situations in which it's difficult to objectively say who won the elections, e.g. very close election with suspected fraud.

Answer 8 covers election being cancelled, postponed or run with significantly changed process (e.g. direct popular vote). This answer has higher priority than answers 2-7, i.e. if there are any significant changes to the election law under Trump, this option wins.

Clarification regarding what counts as "opposition": If the election happens, Trump is still active, but doesn't endorse any candidate, then I'll count him as implicitly endorsing the republican candidate, UNLESS he completely breaks any ties with GOP in which case I will count GOP candidate as opposition. In particular, if Trump endorses an independent candidate, both GOP and Democratic candidates count as opposition.

I do not bet on my own questions.

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Interestingly this market gives Trump 47% chance of winning while the main election prediction market gives 51%. I sense some free mana here, but I don’t bet on my own questions.

There's weaker incentives to correct prices on this market because the market resolves in 4 years instead of a few months. but yeah, true

This particular option will go to either 0 or 100% by the end of the year, so it will be easy enough to liquidate.

No, it goes to ~5% or YES, because 5% over 4 years is below the risk free interest rate

You mean that selling at 5% will not cover the expected profit from the 5% difference in probability? Makes sense

You don't negate your premise in an answer. It's bad logic.

@MaybeNotDepends Everyone who is saying "Trump does not win" if the premise is "he won" is by default wrong, and it can be resolved as such.

@MaybeNotDepends I thought its inclusion implies the question asker meant to ask "How will Trump's victory affect the transition of power be like in 2028". If we shouldn't be considering it an option it shouldn't have been included

@MaybeNotDepends The market has to resolve somehow if Trump doesn’t win and N/A resolution is no longer possible.

Empirically ~20% of Presidents have died while in office. Considering his age and baseline health, I believe option 2 is under bought. The SSA life expectancy tables for an 77 year old imply 10.58 years of expected life for a male.

@CharlieGarcia The conspiracies will never end if this happens. It might be the most dangerous outcome. I have to think of a phrasing for a market here.

What if a Republican candidate wins in 2028, but is not a "candidate endorsed by Trump"? Would they count as an "opposition" candidate?

If Trump wins in 2024,...

Top option right now, which is literally impossible

Trump doesn't win in 2024

@percentage Markets don't resolve as N/A nowadays, so there has to be an option to resolve it in case Trump doesn't win.

What counts as "significantly"? What if everything remains nominally the same but something like a " good character clause" is added to the list of presidential requirements, for instance?

@JessicaEvans It would include any changes that could materially affect the election results. So for example laws in Russia prohibiting "foreign agents" to participate in elections would qualify since they've been used to exclude opposition candidates.

I assume you will resolve more than one as yes?

@GordanKnott the description says they are meant to be mutually exclusive

@GordanKnott Could you give an example where more than one options would apply? I'll try to clarify them

Any/all of the top three could be caused by the bottom one

@Bayesian

@GordanKnott Thanks, I’ll clarify, that the last option has higher priority than the other ones.

opened a Ṁ1,000 Trump doesn't win in... YES at 40% order

It could be that a candidate not endorsed by trump but not the opposition candidate wins? Like if trump endorses a candidate that loses, and hates both subsequent options?

@Bayesian

If the election happens, Trump is still active, but doesn't endorse any candidate, then I'll count him as implicitly endorsing the republican candidate, UNLESS he completely breaks any ties with GOP in which case I will count GOP candidate as opposition.

In particular, if Trump endorses an independent candidate, both GOP and Democratic candidates count as opposition.

Does it make sense? I don't want to create options for every possible subplot.

bought Ṁ17 Trump wins in 2024 a... YES

@OlegEterevsky yeah, fair enough, that works.