Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla releases a vehicle with Level 4 autonomy—defined as a vehicle capable of performing all driving tasks within specific conditions without human intervention—by December 31, 2025. The release is confirmed if Tesla officially announces the availability of such a vehicle for purchase or deployment in a commercial service by the specified date. Official announcements from Tesla's press releases, investor communications, or reputable news outlets will serve as sources for resolution.
Background
Tesla has been actively developing autonomous driving technologies, with CEO Elon Musk frequently projecting advancements in this area. In October 2024, Tesla unveiled the "Cybercab," a fully autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, targeting production before 2027. (apnews.com) Additionally, Tesla announced plans to launch a paid robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, starting with 10-20 Model Y vehicles equipped with self-driving software, aiming for a June 2025 launch. (reuters.com) Despite these announcements, Tesla has a history of setting ambitious timelines for autonomous vehicle deployment that have not always been met.
Considerations
While Tesla has made significant strides in autonomous vehicle technology, achieving Level 4 autonomy involves overcoming substantial technical and regulatory challenges. The company's past projections regarding the timeline for full self-driving capabilities have often been optimistic, leading to skepticism about current timelines. Potential investors and stakeholders should consider these factors when evaluating the likelihood of Tesla releasing a Level 4 autonomous vehicle by the end of 2025.
Update 2025-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Tesla officially announces a Level 4 vehicle but its actual performance meeting the Level 4 definition is widely questioned, the creator has indicated that the official announcement alone may not be sufficient for a YES resolution. In such cases, the following may also be considered to determine if the vehicle truly meets the Level 4 criteria:
Performance data, such as the frequency of interventions.
Public opinion and expert opinion.
1,000@AIBear Tesla could claim it is level 4, but I would probably just do it based on data, public opinion, etc. If there are too many interventions (unlike waymo, etc.) then it most likely wouldn't be lvl 4 in the first place, but if Elon Musk keeps claiming it's level 4 then it would be mostly up to popular opinion and experts.